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Initially, Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "severe consequences" last August in case Putin carried on obstructing peace discussions, he finally enacted major penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by American and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would effectively reward Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's political freedom in danger. Although strong statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business past, the former president persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the president. But, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it stops serves as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible government that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their current large number troops to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the plan imposes no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, the proposal declares: "Any radical belief system and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. However, Trump sets no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should the international community believe this commitment this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on western protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive joint military response" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from vague to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not