Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.