Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”