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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – with three in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a hung parliament split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”